Network Embeddedness and the Rate of Water Cooperation and Conflict
James HollwayThis paper demonstrates the first application of social network theory and statistical network models to international water cooperation and conflict events. It employs dynamic network actor models (DyNAMs) to model both actors’ choices of whom to cooperative or conflict with, and when they decide to make these choices. It thus represents the first demonstration of coevolving, signed DyNAMs as well as one of the first empirical and theoretical emphases by an actor-oriented network model of the rate part of the model. The paper finds that network effects express important endogeneities in existing water event datasets that must be taken into account in future research and policy-making, and that while actors’ embeddedness in cooperative relationships accelerates both cooperation and conflict, embeddedness in conflictual relationships decelerates both.